Fifteen games played, nine losses, six draws, and without a single win.
€90 Million spent, their worst ever start to a campaign, security threats, and the club in lockdown. How has one of Italy’s most recognisable club’s ended up here?
Last season, Fiorentina finished 6th in the Serie A under manager Raffaele Palladino.
This earned them a qualification to the UEFA Conference League, a competition they’ve impressed in thus far, sitting 11th in the league phase.
But Palladino was replaced by Stefano Pioli in the summer, after a fallout with sporting director Daniele Pradè led him to resign.
In the summer window, they added to a squad already consisting of a number of recognisable names including David De Gea, and Moise Kean, with the additions of striker Roberto Piccoli for €25 million, Juventus midfielder Nicolo Fagioli for €13.5 million, right back Tariq Lamptey for €6 million, and a 39-year-old Edin Dzeko on a free transfer from Fenerbahce.
The success of the summer additions can be summarised by the resignation of Pradè in November.
The club’s second most-expensive arrival ever Roberto Piccoli has just one goal in twelve league appearances, Tariq Lamptey has only made two league appearances so far, and Edin Dzeko has failed to score in each of his 11 league appearances in the Serie A.
Pradè said upon his resignation, “The club put €90m at my disposal to build the team, If anyone is responsible for the current situation, it’s me.”
His self-sacrifice, however honourable, didn’t do much to take pressure off the manager Stefano Pioli who was sacked last month, or calm any anger within the club’s support.
After the club’s 3-1 loss to Sassuolo in early December, the club had to take extra security measures to protect their players and staff after threats received from their supporters.
A statement from Fiorentina said: “Our commitment to protecting our players and their families remains steadfast”.
The club were last relegated in 1993, although recovered quickly earning immediate promotion back to the Serie A.
But it may not be so easily recoverable this time, with the club in difficult financial waters down to their refurbishment of the Stadio Artemio Franchi reducing capacity temporarily by 50%. but the projects completion has been delayed to potentially as late as 2029.
Relegation isn’t just a scary footballing horizon, but an equally scary financial one.
But how bad really are Fiorentina? And do they deserve to be struggling as much as they are?
Well comparing their performance in the league to their performance in the UEFA Conference league shows a stark contrast. After 5 games they’ve accumulated nine points, with three wins and two losses. A win percentage of 60% in Europe obviously makes a stark contrast to a win rate of 0% in their domestic campaign. But we should look further into their performances in the Serie A.
The Understat expected points table has Fiorentina sat 16th, with 16 points after 15 games. Meaning they’re underperforming their expected points return based on their performances by 10 points, the biggest underperformance of any side in Europe’s top five leagues, second to only Wolves in the Premier League.
Moise Kean finished with 19 league goals last season from an xG of 21, 13 goals clear of their second highest scorer Albert Gudmundsson. But this season, in 14 starts he’s only netted twice for the club from an xG of 8. Gudmundsson has the same return (2) in 13 appearances (9 starts) from an xG of 1. It’s clear from this that Moise Kean has experienced a huge drop-off in output last season, but it’s not down to not getting the same chances, he simply isn’t taking them. As is reflected in his xG underperformance.
The situation at Fiorentina is bad, but it’s not irreparable. A bad summer window has meant new signings not working out, and last season’s top scorer Moise Kean massively underperforming what is expected has meant the team is left without a functioning main man.
They’re 8 points away from safety with 23 games still to play and the January transfer window coming up. New manager Paolo Vanoli hasn’t started well, but the club’s position in the Conference League means they can likely still make some much needed additions over the winter period.
A combination of club politics and bad luck has led to the dangerous situation, and relegation is certainly on the cards. But survival shouldn’t be written off just yet.
