With hundreds of elections happening across the country, here are six races which could make all the difference on election night.
Texas Senate Race – James Talarico (D) v. Ken Paxton (R) – Leans Democrat
This is an open Senate seat after incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R) lost the Republican primary to Trump-endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The Democrats nominated state representative James Talarico in hopes of winning their first statewide election since 1994.
Recent developments:
- This race has become one of the most expensive political races in American history, with total spending topping $400 million.
- Talarico has held a narrow lead in the polls for several weeks following scrutiny over Paxton’s previous impeachment in the Texas House and his unwillingness to debate Talarico.
New York 17th Congressional District – Congressman Mike Lawler (R) v. Cait Conely (D) – Toss Up
Republican incumbent Mike Lawler is defending his seat in a competitive suburban district north of New York City.
Lawler won it in 2022 against Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney and was successfully re-elected in 2024, despite Kamala Harris winning the district by a small margin in the Presidential Race.
Democrats have nominated a military veteran and former national security official in Cait Conley.
Recent developments:
- No major election forecaster has managed to get a consistent read on the likely victor in this race, with undecided voters making up as much as 8% of the voting share; this one will go down to the wire.
- This has been seen as a contentious yet non-controversial contest focusing on narratives like representation, trust and national policy as opposed to the outright personal attacks seen in other races.
Michigan Senate Race – Abdul El-Sayed (D) v. Mike Rogers (R) – Leans Democrat
This Senate seat opened up following Senator Gary Peter’s (D) choice to retire.
Democrats nominated Dr Abdul El-Sayed in a contentious primary against Congresswoman Haley Stevens, whereas Republicans chose former Congressman Mike Rogers.
Recent developments:
- In a startling display, Congresswoman Haley Stevens offered her support and endorsement for Mike Rogers just two days before the election, despite previously pledging her support for El-Sayed. Many of her staffers have resigned, and she has since been removed from the Michigan Democratic Party.
- The move seems to have unified Democrats, and donations to El-Sayed’s campaign increased in the wake of this.
Ohio Governor Race – Amy Acton (D) v. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) – Toss Up
With term-limited Governor Mike DeWine (R) unable to run again, this is an open race for Democrat and former Ohio health director Amy Acton and former Trump DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) head Vivek Ramaswamy.
Recent Developments:
- Ramaswamy drew massive condemnation from across the political spectrum after airing an attack ad with Acton’s estranged mother, in which she calls Acton a liar and untrustworthy.
- Polling has been close for the entire race, but the backlash from the ad seems to have tipped the scales ever so slightly in Acton’s favour.
Georgia Senate Race – Senator Jon Ossoff (D) v. Mike Collins (R) – Solid Democrat
Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is seeking a second term in office following his 2021 Georgia runoff win, whilst Republicans have nominated Congressman Mike Collins from Georgia’s 10th District, who emerged victorious from an aggressive primary and runoff with Trump’s blessing.
Recent developments:
- This seat is seen as a secure Democrat win, with a ~10% advantage in Ossoff’s favour and a massive $100 million difference in campaign fundraising.
- Collins performances at the two October debates have not helped his chances, with many viewing this as a significant failure to meaningfully challenge a blue senator in a somewhat red state.
Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District – Bob Brooks (D) v. Ryan Mackenzie (R) – Lean Democrat
Congressman Ryan Mckenzie (R) finds himself in a difficult fight with Democratic challenger and former firefighter Bob Brooks.
In an election squarely focused on the economy and cost of living, Brooks has taken a large and unexpected lead in the polls, with all eyes on whether poll numbers can be translated into votes.
Recent developments:
- The polling lead held by Brooks has shrunk to roughly 5% in recent days, with major outlets still considering the seat to be Likely Democrat on election night. The limited number of undecided voters is going to make it hard for Mackenzie to find a route to victory, but it is not entirely out of the question.
