With hundreds of elections happening across the country, here are six races which could make all the difference on election night.
Texas Senate Race – James Talarico (D) v. Ken Paxton (R) – Leans Democrat
This is an open Senate seat after incumbent Senator John Cornyn (R) lost the Republican primary to Trump-endorsed Texas attorney general Ken Paxton.
The Democrats nominated state representative James Talarico in hopes of winning their first statewide election since 1994.
Recent developments:
- This race has become one of the most expensive political races in American history, with total spending topping $400 million.
- Talarico has held a narrow lead in the polls for several weeks following scrutiny over Paxton’s previous impeachment in the Texas House.
- Paxton’s unwillingness to debate Talarico has also drawn attention.
New York 17th Congressional District – Congressman Mike Lawler (R) v. Cait Conely (D) – Toss Up
Republican incumbent Mike Lawler is defending his seat in a competitive suburban district north of New York City.
Lawler won it in 2022 against Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney and was successfully re-elected in 2024 despite Kamala Harris taking the district by a small margin in the presidential race.
Democrats have nominated military veteran and former national security official Cait Conely.
Recent developments:
- No major election forecaster has managed to get a consistent read on the likely victor in this race but with undecided voters make up as much as 8 per cent of the voting share this one will go down to the wire.
- This has been seen as a contentious yet non-controversial contest.
- The campaign’s have focused on representation, trust and national policy rather than the personal attacks seen in other races.
Michigan Senate Race – Abdul El-Sayed (D) v. Mike Rogers (R) – Leans Democrat
This Senate seat opened up following Senator Gary Peters’ (D) choice to retire.
Democrats nominated Dr Abdul El-Sayed in a contentious primary against Congresswoman Haley Stevens.
Republicans chose former Congressman Mike Rogers.
Recent developments:
- In a startling display, Congresswoman Haley Stevens offered her support and endorsement for Mike Rogers just two days before the election.
- She had previously pledged her support for El-Sayed. Many of her staffers have resigned citing shock and outrage over the decision.
- She has since been removed from the Michigan Democratic Party.
- The move seems to have unified Democrats, with condemnation for Stevens and support for El-Sayed following swiftly after the announcement.
- El-Sayed’s campaign reportedly received $2.4 million in donations the following day.
Ohio Governor Race – Amy Acton (D) v. Vivek Ramaswamy (R) – Toss Up
This is an open race between Democrat and former Ohio health director Amy Acton and former Trump DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) head Vivek Ramaswamy.
Current Govenor Mike DeWine (R) is term-limited, thus unable to run again.
Recent developments:
- Ramaswamy drew massive condemnation from across the political spectrum after airing an attack ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother.
- In the advert, she described Acton as a liar and untrustworthy.
- Polling has been close for the entire race however, the backlash from the ad seems to have tipped the scales slightly in Acton’s favour.
Georgia Senate Race – Senator Jon Ossoff (D) v. Mike Collins (R) – Solid Democrat
Democratic incumbent Jon Ossoff is seeking a second term in office following his 2021 Georgia runoff win.
Republicans have nominated Congressman Mike Collins from Georgia’s 10th District. Collins emerged victorious from an aggressive primary and runoff with Trump’s blessing.
Recent developments:
- This seat is seen as a secure Democrat win.
- Ossoff holds a 10 per cent and $100 million fundraising gap advantage.
- Collins’ performances at the two October debates have not helped his chances.
- Many view his campaign as a significant failure to meaningfully challenge a blue senator in a somewhat red state.
Pennsylvania 7th Congressional District – Bob Brooks (D) v. Ryan Mackenzie (R) – Lean Democrat
Congressman Ryan McKenzie (R) finds himself in a difficult fight with Democratic challenger and former firefighter Bob Brooks.
The election has been focused squarely on the economy and cost of living.
Brooks has taken a large and unexpected lead in the polls. All eyes are on whether poll numbers can be translated into votes.
Recent developments:
- The polling lead held by Brooks has shrunk to roughly 5 per cent in recent days.
- Major outlets still consider the seat likely Democrat on election night.
- The limited number of undecided voters will make it difficult for Mackenzie to find a route to victory.
- However, it is not entirely out of the question.
