Trump vs Biden 2020: what are the key swing states and who is leading the race

The battle for the White Hose between President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger, former Vice-President Joe Biden, is finally coming to a head.

The campaign has been fought against the backdrop of some of the most fractious months in America’s recent history, with debates over race relations, law and order, climate change and abortion rights – amongst many others – all raging in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

Trump has been his usual self in this period, showcasing many of the firebrand hallmarks that made him the United States’ 45^th president in 2016.

Dodging questions over his personal finances, demonising his “sleepy” rival, and pledging to kiss the attendees of a rally immediately after recovering from a spell in hospital with coronavirus all show that he is keen to stay in the White House for another four years.

But whilst the chants of “Four More Years” and “Joe Go Home” echo around the hangars used to hold Trump’s rallies, polls across the country and indeed the world give Biden a small, but comfortable, lead.

The Telegraph reported on Friday that the 77-year old had a seven-point lead, with national polls in America giving Biden anywhere between a six and 12-point advantage.

With just hours to go until voting opens, there are question marks over what more either candidate can do now to change the tide. Indeed, the US Elections Project estimates that as of last Thursday, over 85 million people had voted early, either by post or in person, partly due to the pandemic.

This already exceeds the number of votes cast early in 2016.

However, given how the Electoral College system operates, those votes will need to be in the right place for either candidate to be successful. We take a look at the key states both men will be desperate to win on Tuesday.

Florida

The definition of a “swing state”, and arguably the most important state in the country.

With either candidate needing 270 Electoral College delegates to win the presidency, Florida’s 29 seats represents a huge prize.

As well as being one of the ‘Big Three’ alongside California and Texas, the southern state has often indicated the outcome of the race overall. It has voted the way of the overall winner in all bar one election since 1964.

It is a must-win state for both candidates, and one that, particularly for Trump, has sentimental value given that it is home to his Mar-a-Lago resort.

The money spent on advertising in the Sunshine State certainly proves this. Biden’s campaign is reported to have spent almost $7 million, and Trump almost $3 million, in the final week of campaigning alone.

Polls give Biden a slender lead, which will be incredibly alarming for most wearing “Make America Great Again” hats. Biden is aided by the Latino vote, which was heavily in favour of the Democrats in 2016. But reports also suggest that senior voters, who make up 25 per cent of the state’s electorate and feel most at risk from coronavirus, are leaning towards the left.

Their traditionally-conservative platform was a great boost to Trump in his victory in 2016, so losing their support could be enough to tip the outcome in Biden’s favour in both the state and across the country.

Ohio

The fact that Trump has visited this midwestern state as many times as he has may be enough to concern some in his campaign team. The incumbent won by eight points here in 2016, which for a traditional swing state is some margin.  

Polls suggest that Trump retains a lead, albeit a much thinner one than last time. With 18 delegates up for grabs, it is certainly helpful to win the Buckeye State. It is industrial, the workers of its manufacturing-based economy warming to Trump’s 2016 platform of protecting American industry and jobs.

Whilst that message will still appeal to some, reports suggest that suburban white women – who have not previously voted in great numbers – are heavily favouring Biden.

Some polls indicate that the Democratic candidate is leading among this demographic by up to 20 points. It is claimed that women are increasingly finding that their roles as mothers and their own career ambitions directly contradict the words, actions and mindset of the president.

Ohio is an important state in itself but could also indicate wider voting trends amongst the US population. The outcome in the state and the wider election may show just how much the country has changed during Trump’s first term in office.

Pennsylvania

It was only a few weeks ago that Trump told a rally in the Pennsylvanian city of Erie that he did not like how cold it was there, and that he was only there because he was losing. But whether he likes it or not, this state is being backed by many to be the one to watch.  

The story here is much the same as in neighbouring Ohio. Trump shocked many observers when he won the historically blue state in 2016, even if it was by only 0.7 per cent.

But as the president himself has suggested, four years on he is trailing there by a healthy margin, at least according to the polls.

Pennsylvania has great sentimental and electoral value, beyond the fact that Biden was born in the Keystone State. It is home to Independence Hall, in Philadelphia, where the US Declaration of Independence was signed, and is the joint-fifth-largest state in terms of electoral college delegates available, with 20 up for grabs.

See how Temple students in Pennsylvania feel about the 2020 elections.

It is also hugely divided. Non-college educated white people make up 55% of the state’s population aged 25 and over. These numerous blue-collar workers voted in favour of the GOP in 2016, but Biden will hope that his personal connections with the area will be enough to put him on top.

There are also suburban and black voter communities that have traditionally voted for the Democrats but did not vote in sufficient numbers to see them win there in 2016.

How the state swings this time around remains to be seen. But make no mistake, the contest here could decide the entire race.

A US feature publication predicted that Pennsylvania has a 31 percent chance of deciding the election’s outcome, with Trump given an 84 percent chance and Biden a 96 percent chance of winning the presidency outright if they carry this one state.

North Carolina

Unlike its southern neighbour, which has stayed rigidly Republican, North Carolina has flirted with the Democrats before, back in 2008.

Despite giving Trump 15 Electoral College votes last time, the Tar Heel State remains one that the support of which neither candidate wishes to take for granted.

Trump won by 3.6 percentage points, in a victory that showcased the divide between rural and urban voters, but its gradual shift to the left has been clear for some time.

This appears to be recognised in both camps; Trump, and his Vice-President Mike Pence, have visited the state more than half a dozen times in two months.

This state is important for two reasons.

Firstly, it could showcase the wider impact of postal voting, which is reported to have heavily impacted voter turnout in 2016.

Restrictions to early voting across the eastern state, imposed by its Republican Senate, hit certain communities harder than others. The black community in particular, which makes up between 20-25 per cent of the population, saw an 8.7 per cent drop in voter turnout in 2016 compared with 2012 – equivalent to around 66,000 votes.

90 per cent of the black community that DID vote in 2016 voted for Hillary Clinton. Given the incredible numbers of early voters across the country, this could have a seismic impact on the outcome of the race.

Secondly, there is also a vital Senate race happening here too, as is the case in some other states. Whilst currently having a six-seat majority in the state’s chamber, if the Republicans lose this it could show that the Republican grip on the south is beginning to weaken.

This is why many in Trump’s campaign are calling it a “must-win” state, and why the state is viewed as a key part of Democrat attempts to win back the Senate.

If North Carolina’s General Assembly turns blue, but Trump wins a second term, it may make his chances of pushing through new laws and reform in Washington a more difficult task.

Biden has a small lead here, averaging around two points in most polls. However, as the challenger will know all too well, his opponent has a knack of pulling off surprises. Whilst the real outcome remains to be seen, these states – and their voters – could determine the course of the country for the next four years.

By Callum Parke

Featured image: Platform design.